Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated for the tenth consecutive month, dropping slightly to 15.10% in January 2026, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The figure represents a marginal decrease from the 15.15% recorded in December 2025, signaling a continued, albeit slow, cooling of price pressures across the federation. On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61% recorded in January 2025, highlighting the impact of sustained monetary tightening and a stronger Naira.
Food Prices and Core Inflation
A significant driver of the decline was the sharp moderation in food inflation, which fell to 8.89% year-on-year. The NBS attributed this to a reduction in the prices of staples such as grains, palm oil, and vegetables. However, core inflation—which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy—remained relatively elevated at 17.72%, though it also showed a seventh consecutive month of moderation.
Upcoming MPC Meeting and Fiscal Risks
The data arrives as the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) prepares to meet on February 23 and 24, 2026. While the downward trend in inflation typically provides room for interest rate cuts, financial analysts remain cautious.
Expert consensus suggests the MPC may opt to hold the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at its current 27.00%. This caution is driven by "election-cycle spending" associated with the ongoing 2026 local polls, which analysts warn could inject excess liquidity into the system. Standard Chartered's latest brief suggests that while the trajectory is positive, the CBN will likely prioritize "liquidity control" to prevent any sudden reversal in inflation gains.
Market Outlook
The strengthening of the Naira, which recently touched a two-year high of N1,344/$ in the official market, has also played a pivotal role in reducing the cost of imported inflation. Despite these gains, stakeholders in the real estate and manufacturing sectors noted during a recent forum in Lagos that the impact of lower inflation is yet to be fully felt at the retail level due to "price stickiness."
Reader Question:
Despite the official report showing a drop in inflation to 15.10%, have you noticed any significant decrease in the cost of food items in your local markets this month?
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