The Federal Government has released its 2026 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO), warning that flooding is expected to affect Lagos, Bayelsa, Delta, Adamawa, Kebbi, and 28 other states across the country as the rainy season begins.
The flood prediction was unveiled on Wednesday by the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Engr. Joseph Utsev, during the public presentation of the AFO held at the Presidential Banquet Hall, Abuja. The event was organised by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NiHSA) under the theme: “Smart Water Resources Management: Moving from Oil to Water-Based Economy.”
Utsev stressed that early warnings remain crucial in reducing the devastating impact of flooding, noting that timely information saves lives, protects infrastructure, and prevents major economic losses. He explained that the Federal Government is strengthening its flood forecasting capacity through the modernisation of hydrological monitoring systems across the country.
The minister also disclosed that his ministry is expanding collaboration with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) to ensure improved integration of weather and water data, which is vital for delivering more reliable forecasts to farmers, urban planners, disaster managers, and other sectors.
According to him, the Annual Flood Outlook is not merely a scientific report but a national call to action, adding that forecasts will only be effective if communities and government institutions translate the warnings into practical preparedness.
The presentation was attended by President Bola Tinubu, who was represented by the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal, alongside senior government officials, state representatives, development partners, security chiefs, and members of the media.
Flood Risk Highlights
Utsev revealed that the 2026 forecast identifies 14,118 communities across 266 Local Government Areas in 33 states and the FCT as being under high flood risk. The affected states include Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara, and the FCT.
He also stated that 15,597 communities in 405 LGAs across 35 states—excluding Ekiti—are projected to experience moderate flood risk, while 923 communities in 77 LGAs across 24 states may face minimal flooding.
Flash Flood Warning in Major Cities
The minister warned that flash and urban flooding is expected in major cities due to heavy rainfall, poor drainage maintenance, blocked waterways, and weak flood-resilience infrastructure. Cities likely to experience this include Abuja, Lagos, Ibadan, Kano, Kaduna, Port Harcourt, Benin City, Warri, Sokoto, Calabar, Makurdi, Asaba, Abeokuta, Oshogbo, Onitsha, and Yola, among others.
Coastal Flooding Threat
He further noted that coastal and riverine flooding is projected in Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers, Ondo, driven by rising sea levels and tidal surges. This could negatively affect fishing activities, wildlife habitats, and river transportation.
Utsev called on state governments, local councils, disaster management agencies, farmers, and community leaders to act quickly by reviewing the forecast and adopting preventive measures. He urged authorities to integrate flood risk planning into land-use policies, urban development, and infrastructure design.
He stressed that floodplains must be properly managed, drainage systems improved, and communities supported to adapt to changing climate conditions.
NiHSA Introduces AI-Integrated Flood Modelling
Earlier, NiHSA’s Director-General, Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, said the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook aligns with President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, particularly in areas of climate resilience, food security, sustainable water management, and infrastructure development.
He revealed that NiHSA has upgraded from traditional flood forecasting to a Flood Risk Intelligence Architecture, supported by a Hybrid AI-Integrated Modelling System, designed to improve accuracy, reduce false alarms, and enhance early warning lead time.
Mohammed also disclosed that the flood modelling for 2026 was conducted fully in-house, marking a strategic shift towards improving manpower development and institutional resilience.
He added that NiHSA’s Flood Dashboard has now been upgraded into a Decision-Support Geo-Intelligence System, enabling real-time visualisation of flood scenarios. The system is also integrated with a Flood Mobile App, supported by NiHSA flood marshals who respond to public inquiries.
NiMet Pledges Continued Collaboration
In a goodwill message, NiMet’s Director-General, Prof. Charles Anosike, acknowledged the continued devastation caused by flooding across Nigeria and other African nations.
He commended NiHSA for strengthening flood predictions and assured that NiMet would continue working closely with the agency to enhance early warnings and support national flood management efforts.
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